THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
BENGALS at JETS
1 p.m., Bengals by 4 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: This isn’t the week the Jets want to be playing a desperate Bengals team. Somehow, they have to temper their excitement after their miracle win by the lake because the defending AFC champs aren’t going to stay this bad for long. Joe Burrow is too good and if his offensive line ever starts to give him time, he’s going to start finding Ja’Marr Chase downfield. The Jets don’t have the same pass rush as the Steelers and Cowboys so that could be this week. And with the Jets’ run defense a question mark, there could be a lot of Joe Mixon. The Jets certainly take confidence from last year’s upset of Cincy but that’s when they caught the Bengals at the right time. The Jets will have the Bengals’ full attention now. Cincy is better and it will show here.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals the over.
COWBOYS at GIANTS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Giants by 2 ½, 39 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Give me the Cowboys’ defense as by far the best of the four units. They have stymied offenses led by Tom Brady and Joe Burrow and should make the difference in this matchup with the incomparable Micah Parsons apt to wreak havoc on Daniel Jones. Cooper Rush has been fine as a backup and he’s not going to have to produce a lot of points here. He gets WR Michael Gallup back and with Leonard Williams iffy, the Cowboys can get their running game going. The Giants have lost six straight games on MNF and nine of their last 10 SU against Dallas. As well-coached as they are, it’s time for them to come back to Earth. It’s a low total but we still like it.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
EAGLES at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Eagles by 6 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Eagles are proving they are one of the most complete offensive teams in football and the Commanders (still can’t get used to that BTW) are proving they can’t play defense. They’ve allowed 16 explosive plays in two games and are facing a Jalen Hurts-led attack that hasn’t been stopped yet. If they leave as many people wide open as they did against the Lions, this will be a laugher. Carson Wentz has had his moments but his supposedly solid O-line has been buckling under blitz pressure. Losing athletic center Chase Roullier is huge against an Eagles pass rush that improved substantially Monday night. There is a worry that the Eagles are getting a little too cocky but we’ll take that risk.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the over.
BILLS at DOLPHINS
1 p.m., Bills by 5 ½, 53 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: We know the Bills are that good. We don’t know if the Dolphins are. The Bills and Josh Allen have owned this divisional rivalry with seven straight SU wins by an average of almost 20 points. Allen has never faced the Dolphins without throwing for at least two TDs. Miami has had to blitz to create any pressure and that will be playing into Allen’s hands. Credit to Tua and the Fish for rallying against the Ravens. But Baltimore took its foot off the gas. Buffalo will not do that. When the Bills win they win big. Each of their last 20 wins have come by at least 10 points. If you still like Miami, you’ll be happy to know that the Dolphins have covered six of their last seven at home and are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 overall.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bills and the over.
RAVENS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Ravens by 3, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: The Ravens are the better team by miles and after blowing last week’s game to the Dolphins, John Harbaugh will have their full attention (the Ravens are 7-3 ATS following their last 10 losses). The secondary can’t be that bad and the Patriots really don’t have the speed to exploit it the way the Fish did. A lot of the issues concerned communication and that should be relatively easy to clean up. It wasn’t Lamar Jackson’s fault Sunday. He killed it.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.
CHIEFS at COLTS
1 p.m., Chiefs by 6 ½, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: The Colts look lost. The offense doesn’t look right under Matt Ryan and the solution is obvious — feed the ball to Jonathan Taylor. Easier said than done. The Chiefs have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry so far against James Conner and Austin Ekeler. And if Patrick Mahomes takes off as Trevor Lawrence did a week ago, the Colts will be in comeback mode from the start. We don’t thank this version of Matty Ice is up to it. Mahomes, meanwhile, has a career 13-2 SU record in September. A well-rested K.C. team should coast.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the over.
FALCONS at SEAHAWKS
4:25 p.m., Seahawks by 1 ½, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Atlanta plays its second straight West Coast game after two tough losses, including a near-comeback against the Rams. They seem to be better than advertised with Arthur Smith getting the most out of his talent and, for the first time this year, they have one huge matchup advantage. The Seahawks have been getting gashed on the ground through two games and that is the Falcons’ strength. Seattle was the beneficiary of Broncos miscues in Week 1 but after a quick start by Geno Smith, the offense has gone six straight quarters without scoring. The Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine road games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Falcons and the under.
RAIDERS at TITANS
1 p.m., Raiders by 2 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Neither one of these teams expected to be 0-2 to start the year but at least the Raiders have flashed a few things. A so-far-underachieving Derek Carr should finally get going here. The Raiders have one of the best WR corps in the NFL, led by Davante Adams, and the Titans’ secondary is one of the worst. Tennessee is going to need a big game from Derrick Henry but the Titans O-line hasn’t been inspiring confidence and they’ll be outmatched again here. What’s worse — getting blown away like the Titans or blowing a big lead like the Raiders? We’ll call it a wash.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Raiders and the under.
PACKERS at BUCS
4:25 p.m., Bucs by 2 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: People are banking on Aaron Rodgers’ absurdly poor record in Florida. The California boy who plays in Wisconsin is 3-5, including his most recent trip, last season’s stinker against the Saints in Jacksonville with a passer rating of 36.8. We don’t know what Tom Brady’s record is without his three best receivers but with Mike Evans suspended (“ridiculous,” said the GOAT) and with Chris Godwin and Julio Jones very questionable, that’s an even bigger concern than Rodgers’ history of sunstroke. Hexes are made to be broken, as Brady did last week against the Saints. And can this battle of Hall of Fame QBs possibly go under the total? Yep.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Packers and the under
NINERS at BRONCOS
8:20 p.m., 49ers by 1, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: Maybe Trey Lance is the future of the 49ers but Jimmy G is the guy who took them to last year’s NFC Championship Game. And he’s back in charge with a game plan tailored to him this week. With a 33-14 record as a starter, Garoppolo will look to continue to exploit Denver’s linebackers in coverage with TE George Kittle returning from injury. The Broncos have a problem. Their offense is stuck in the mud and Russell Wilson has somehow lost his mobility, his greatest strength. To think they are going to finally find their footing against one of the NFL’s best defensive units is wishful thinking, especially if Jerry Jeudy (ribs) can’t go. Only caveat: Wilson is 17-4 SU against SF in his career.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the over.
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LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
LIONS at VIKINGS
1 p.m., Vikings by 5 ½, 52 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Kirk Cousins wilted once more in the spotlight as the Vikings fell back to Earth with a thud. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense had its second straight impressive week. They might not have the headliners that the Vikings do but they have been extremely well balanced. Their defense is another story and, back at home, Cousins can exploit it. There is no one in that secondary who can neutralize Justin Jefferson, who will be itching for redemption after being frustrated by Darius Slay. It sets up as a back-and-forth thriller, a definitive over pick. If we have to choose, we’ll take the points. The Lions covered both matchups a year ago.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Lions and the over.
BEST OF THE REST
TEXANS at BEARS
1 p.m., Bears by 2 ½, 40 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Texans and the under
SAINTS at PANTHERS
1 p.m., Saints by 3, 40 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under
JAGUARS at CHARGERS
4:05 p.m., Chargers by 7, 48
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jaguars and the under.
RAMS at CARDINALS
4:25 p.m., Rams by 3 ½, 50
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cardinals and the over.
WEEK’S BEST BET: Falcons. On the rise.
LAST WEEK: 3-13 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U
OVERALL: 9-23 ATS, 19-12-1 O/U
BEST BETS: 0-2